appl wk 4 options look like they're pricing based on the last 4-5 earnings vs. on history so hardly giving any volatility premium. the put side is pricing high and the call side is pricing low. the last 5 earnings announcements have resulted in negative moves through to the following friday for 13d move window, averaging about 1 stdev.
goog options are holding high volatility value, basically not losing value each day. they're priced to cover about a .91 stdev move by expiration after earnings or 8 days. this looks a little cheap considering the 8d moves historically associated with earnings but the last two earnings resulted in about this. The question is how will the price stability hold through weekend and leading to next Thursday after market close.
amzn wide options, the 320-315/270-265 condor pays out 1.5 with a 2.4 stdev protection which would be greater than any post earnings 13d move but 2. The narrow options 295/290 condor to same outside has better expected value but higher max loss.
goog wider condors, 960-955/860-855 offer roughly same, 1.7 but with only 1.5 stdev protection which is barely more than average and has been breached about 50% of the time for the last few years in the 8d stdev earnings move to expiration.
gs has an interesting profile. 170-165/150-145 condors pay 1.04 and provide about 1.25 stdev protection. This wouldn't cover the last 2 8d earnings moves but would cover the average. 50% of the last 10 earnings wouldn't be covered by this.
All in all, appl is looking like an atm straddle long and amzn like a wide condor short. gs like a wide condor short for < 1k but also an atm straddle with a little risk. goog looks like an absolutely expensive, but relatively cheap condor so not sure on that one probably pass.
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